Clearly my original plan is not working. Doubling my bankroll and then doubling my buy-ins worked well when I made the jump from $2 SNGs to $5 SNGs, and it worked even better when I made a quick leap from $5s to $10s and beyond. But I've pretty much flat-lined, and I think I might be wasting my time.
Should I quit? Or just change?
An analysis of the numbers shows something interesting. When I play massive tournaments, I last a long time. The slower structure and the deeper chip stacks play to my strengths and reduce the luck factor. In 18 tournaments of 181-plus players — with an average field size thus far of 851 — I've cashed seven times.
To go a step further, I'm finishing in the top 30 percent of those tournaments 67 percent of the time and the top 10 percent an astounding 39 percent of the time.
So instead of grinding out a bunch of SNGs on a nightly basis, maybe I just need to reduce the number of nights I play and just play longer tournaments with better structures. My bankroll would probably not increase that much more on a weekly basis, but if I can finish in the top 10 percent 39 percent of the time, that means I'm going to score big at some point. Many of those tournaments pay thousands for first place.
Thoughts?
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
What's that?
First hand of a SNG, and I get dealt AK suited in the big blind.
Under the gun raises to 90. Dude in middle position shoves all-in for 1,500.
I have no idea what to make of this. The dude has the little mark next to his icon that indicates he plays a ton of poker. But that doesn't mean he's any good.
Besides, from my experience, people who know anything about poker don't shove all their chips in in response to a standard raise.
So I call. What the heck else am I supposed to do?
UTG folds, and the shove monkey rolls over AQ offsuit. Before the cards hit the board, some guy types in the chatbox.
"Retards"
Another guy types:
"Some people just can't play postflop"
Not sure, but calling a shove with AK suited might not be an awful play. And the shove didn't leave me much choice but to NOT play postflop.
The great thing is I checked both players on OPR. Both of them are losing money faster than a 5-year-old with a hole in his pocket.
Retards.
Under the gun raises to 90. Dude in middle position shoves all-in for 1,500.
I have no idea what to make of this. The dude has the little mark next to his icon that indicates he plays a ton of poker. But that doesn't mean he's any good.
Besides, from my experience, people who know anything about poker don't shove all their chips in in response to a standard raise.
So I call. What the heck else am I supposed to do?
UTG folds, and the shove monkey rolls over AQ offsuit. Before the cards hit the board, some guy types in the chatbox.
"Retards"
Another guy types:
"Some people just can't play postflop"
Not sure, but calling a shove with AK suited might not be an awful play. And the shove didn't leave me much choice but to NOT play postflop.
The great thing is I checked both players on OPR. Both of them are losing money faster than a 5-year-old with a hole in his pocket.
Retards.
Should have gone broke; ended up winning
This is what probably should have been the last hand in the tournament where I came back from 190 chips to win all 67,500. Let me know what you think of how I played this.
Blinds: 30-60
Site: Full Tilt Poker
Dealt to Hero:8♠ 5♠
1 player folds.
herejohnny calls [60]
lucky60 calls [60]
1 player folds.
killemall808 calls [60]
1 player folds.
There is now 270 in the pot (including 30 of mine) and I have 160 behind. I could wait for a few hands and try to get my last 160 in heads-up, but I think this is a great opportunity to shove.
No one has shown strength. The BB has a random hand and will likely fold. What I'm really hoping for is one caller, which would make the pot 560. That means I would be betting 160 to try to win a pot of 400 — which means I'm getting great odds unless someone has an overpair. And I'm not buying an overpair with three limps.
Hero raises to 190, and is all in
1 player folds.
herejohnny raises to 740, and is all in
2 players fold.
herejohnny shows: A♠ K♥
Hero shows: 8♠ 5♠
Got my wish. I am a 3-2 underdog, but I was getting 2 1/2 to 1 on my bet.
Flop: 8♥ J♠ 4♠
Uh. Wow. Not a bad flop for my trash hand, eh?
Turn: 6♠
River: 9♦ herejohnny shows Ace King high
Hero shows a flush, Jack high
Hero wins the pot (560) with a flush, Jack high
Of course, I still had a ton of work to do from here, but if I lose this hand I never see my first royal flush … or any money.
Current bankroll: $1,524 (first time over $1,500)
OPR ranking: 98.13
Blinds: 30-60
Site: Full Tilt Poker
Dealt to Hero:8♠ 5♠
1 player folds.
herejohnny calls [60]
lucky60 calls [60]
1 player folds.
killemall808 calls [60]
1 player folds.
There is now 270 in the pot (including 30 of mine) and I have 160 behind. I could wait for a few hands and try to get my last 160 in heads-up, but I think this is a great opportunity to shove.
No one has shown strength. The BB has a random hand and will likely fold. What I'm really hoping for is one caller, which would make the pot 560. That means I would be betting 160 to try to win a pot of 400 — which means I'm getting great odds unless someone has an overpair. And I'm not buying an overpair with three limps.
Hero raises to 190, and is all in
1 player folds.
herejohnny raises to 740, and is all in
2 players fold.
herejohnny shows: A♠ K♥
Hero shows: 8♠ 5♠
Got my wish. I am a 3-2 underdog, but I was getting 2 1/2 to 1 on my bet.
Flop: 8♥ J♠ 4♠
Uh. Wow. Not a bad flop for my trash hand, eh?
Turn: 6♠
River: 9♦ herejohnny shows Ace King high
Hero shows a flush, Jack high
Hero wins the pot (560) with a flush, Jack high
Of course, I still had a ton of work to do from here, but if I lose this hand I never see my first royal flush … or any money.
Current bankroll: $1,524 (first time over $1,500)
OPR ranking: 98.13
Monday, May 4, 2009
Best. Comeback. Ever
Twenty minutes into a 45-person, $11 SNG on Sunday night, I had 190 chips.
An hour later, I had 67,500.
Quite a comeback. First place was $171. That pushed my bankroll to a new record. In fact, if I hadn't transferred $10 to a friend to get him started online, my bankroll would be above $1,500 for the first time.
I will post the hand that started my comeback from the dead as soon as I can pull it out of the archives, but check out the best hand I've ever had — first one of these ever — right here:
Stacks:
UTG with 4048
UTG+1 with 905
MP1 with 2205
MP2 with 8631
CO with 1815
BTN with 3328
SB with 4615
BB with 3838
Blinds: 100-200
Site: Full Tilt Poker
Dealt to MP2:Q♠ K♠
Preflop:
3 players fold.
Hero raises to 400
3 players fold.
BB calls [200]
Potsize: 900
Can't remember why I min-raised. That's really strange of me. I never do that. There was a guy who would play any two cards and was really aggressive post-flop. If he was the big blind, I might have been trying to get heads up with him without building too big of a pot preflop. But I really can't remember.
Flop:
8♦ 10♠ J♠
BB checks
Hero bets [400]
BB calls [400]
Potsize: 1700
I think an open-ended flush draw with one out to the royal flush is probably a hand I should push hard. But it gets even better …
Turn:
A♠
BB checks
Hero checks
Potsize: 1700
No sense in betting. Although checking is probably suspicious.
River:
K♦
BB checks
Hero bets [600]
1 players fold.
Probably should have bet the turn. The king on the river might have killed my action, even if villain had two pair or a set.
Don't know. Maybe I could have played this better. Never had a royal flush before. I'll try to do better next time.
Current bankroll: $1,494
OPR ranking: 98.08
An hour later, I had 67,500.
Quite a comeback. First place was $171. That pushed my bankroll to a new record. In fact, if I hadn't transferred $10 to a friend to get him started online, my bankroll would be above $1,500 for the first time.
I will post the hand that started my comeback from the dead as soon as I can pull it out of the archives, but check out the best hand I've ever had — first one of these ever — right here:
Stacks:
UTG with 4048
UTG+1 with 905
MP1 with 2205
MP2 with 8631
CO with 1815
BTN with 3328
SB with 4615
BB with 3838
Blinds: 100-200
Site: Full Tilt Poker
Dealt to MP2:Q♠ K♠
Preflop:
3 players fold.
Hero raises to 400
3 players fold.
BB calls [200]
Potsize: 900
Can't remember why I min-raised. That's really strange of me. I never do that. There was a guy who would play any two cards and was really aggressive post-flop. If he was the big blind, I might have been trying to get heads up with him without building too big of a pot preflop. But I really can't remember.
Flop:
8♦ 10♠ J♠
BB checks
Hero bets [400]
BB calls [400]
Potsize: 1700
I think an open-ended flush draw with one out to the royal flush is probably a hand I should push hard. But it gets even better …
Turn:
A♠
BB checks
Hero checks
Potsize: 1700
No sense in betting. Although checking is probably suspicious.
River:
K♦
BB checks
Hero bets [600]
1 players fold.
Probably should have bet the turn. The king on the river might have killed my action, even if villain had two pair or a set.
Don't know. Maybe I could have played this better. Never had a royal flush before. I'll try to do better next time.
Current bankroll: $1,494
OPR ranking: 98.08
Friday, May 1, 2009
Feedback is nice
Wow. "From 50 bucks to 50K" is now the most popular blog at this Web address. Sweet.
A couple people are actually posting comments, which is really cool. I'll do my best to respond to some of them soon. Some back-and-forth would certainly make this more interesting.
While we're here, my past week or so summarized:
Lost $90 in a rare live cash game, then won $116 in the same game seven days later.
Had my first cash in a $26 SNG, which also is my biggest cash online by a dollar or so. Third place brought in $172.80, if I remember right. Actually had a monster stack four-handed before my trip sevens ran into a straight for about two-thirds of my stack.
Still struggled online. Can't seem to get on a roll at all.
Current bankroll: $1,348
OPR ranking: 97.76
A couple people are actually posting comments, which is really cool. I'll do my best to respond to some of them soon. Some back-and-forth would certainly make this more interesting.
While we're here, my past week or so summarized:
Lost $90 in a rare live cash game, then won $116 in the same game seven days later.
Had my first cash in a $26 SNG, which also is my biggest cash online by a dollar or so. Third place brought in $172.80, if I remember right. Actually had a monster stack four-handed before my trip sevens ran into a straight for about two-thirds of my stack.
Still struggled online. Can't seem to get on a roll at all.
Current bankroll: $1,348
OPR ranking: 97.76
Monday, April 27, 2009
Going broke … and OK with it
Sometimes you make the right decision and just get the wrong outcome.
In this hand, I had T♥ K♥ in the big blind and checked to see a flop four ways. Blinds were 60-120, so there was 480 in the pot and I had about 1,500.
Flop:
7♥ 2♥ 3♣
SB checks
Hero bets [120]
I bet 120 as a blocking bet, hoping players would call and not raise. If I don't bet here, someone might make a bigger bet, which would deny me odds to chase the flush. But ...
MP1 raises to 360
CO raises to 3,415, and is all in
1 players fold.
Insta-fold, right? I mean, do I want to put my tournament life at stake with this piece of trash.
The answer is yes, mainly because I'm certain that this will be a three-way pot.
These two are nuts. I put them on one crappy pair and figure I have 15 outs — nine hearts, three kings and three tens — to win. Against one player, this would be a bit of a loose — though probably mathematically correct — call.
But if I'm a favorite and I can basically triple up if I win, well, ship 'em.
Hero calls [1,260] [ all-in ]
MP1 calls [775] [ all-in ]
CO shows: 7♠ 6♠
Hero shows: 10♥ K♥
MP1 shows: 7♣ 8♥
Potsize: 6410
Turn: A♣
River: Q♣
I'm dead. Two morons are still alive. But that's OK. I made notes on both of them, and I plan on getting some chips back from them the next time we cross paths.
I ran the numbers on cardplayer.com, and I was exactly 50 percent after the flop. So I invested 1,260 more into a pot that had more than 4,000 in it. Calling off all of your chips with a draw is rarely a good idea. It was in this case.
In this hand, I had T♥ K♥ in the big blind and checked to see a flop four ways. Blinds were 60-120, so there was 480 in the pot and I had about 1,500.
Flop:
7♥ 2♥ 3♣
SB checks
Hero bets [120]
I bet 120 as a blocking bet, hoping players would call and not raise. If I don't bet here, someone might make a bigger bet, which would deny me odds to chase the flush. But ...
MP1 raises to 360
CO raises to 3,415, and is all in
1 players fold.
Insta-fold, right? I mean, do I want to put my tournament life at stake with this piece of trash.
The answer is yes, mainly because I'm certain that this will be a three-way pot.
These two are nuts. I put them on one crappy pair and figure I have 15 outs — nine hearts, three kings and three tens — to win. Against one player, this would be a bit of a loose — though probably mathematically correct — call.
But if I'm a favorite and I can basically triple up if I win, well, ship 'em.
Hero calls [1,260] [ all-in ]
MP1 calls [775] [ all-in ]
CO shows: 7♠ 6♠
Hero shows: 10♥ K♥
MP1 shows: 7♣ 8♥
Potsize: 6410
Turn: A♣
River: Q♣
I'm dead. Two morons are still alive. But that's OK. I made notes on both of them, and I plan on getting some chips back from them the next time we cross paths.
I ran the numbers on cardplayer.com, and I was exactly 50 percent after the flop. So I invested 1,260 more into a pot that had more than 4,000 in it. Calling off all of your chips with a draw is rarely a good idea. It was in this case.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
What are the odds?
It's been a long, bad week. Suckouts galore. But nothing more annoying than the following hand.
I was getting close to cashing in a 180-player, $8 tournament when the under-the gun player limped in. I've played with this guy plenty. Plays trash hands. Bets the pot or more when he misses, checks big hands. He is the most transparent player I've ever run into.
I see a flop with him with Q-7 offsuit, and the flop comes Q-Q-T. I check expecting him to make a pot-sized bet, which would basically put me all-in. He checks. Odd.
The turn is a 7, giving me a full house. I check again. He checks again. Really odd.
The river puts four clubs on the board. I shove all-in, assuming he'll either call me because it looks like a massive bluff or he'll call me if he has any — and I mean any — club. He insta-calls and rolls over Q-T for a bigger full house.
I think I need a week off.
I was getting close to cashing in a 180-player, $8 tournament when the under-the gun player limped in. I've played with this guy plenty. Plays trash hands. Bets the pot or more when he misses, checks big hands. He is the most transparent player I've ever run into.
I see a flop with him with Q-7 offsuit, and the flop comes Q-Q-T. I check expecting him to make a pot-sized bet, which would basically put me all-in. He checks. Odd.
The turn is a 7, giving me a full house. I check again. He checks again. Really odd.
The river puts four clubs on the board. I shove all-in, assuming he'll either call me because it looks like a massive bluff or he'll call me if he has any — and I mean any — club. He insta-calls and rolls over Q-T for a bigger full house.
I think I need a week off.
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