Tuesday, May 12, 2009

A waste of time or time for a change?

Clearly my original plan is not working. Doubling my bankroll and then doubling my buy-ins worked well when I made the jump from $2 SNGs to $5 SNGs, and it worked even better when I made a quick leap from $5s to $10s and beyond. But I've pretty much flat-lined, and I think I might be wasting my time.

Should I quit? Or just change?

An analysis of the numbers shows something interesting. When I play massive tournaments, I last a long time. The slower structure and the deeper chip stacks play to my strengths and reduce the luck factor. In 18 tournaments of 181-plus players — with an average field size thus far of 851 — I've cashed seven times.

To go a step further, I'm finishing in the top 30 percent of those tournaments 67 percent of the time and the top 10 percent an astounding 39 percent of the time.

So instead of grinding out a bunch of SNGs on a nightly basis, maybe I just need to reduce the number of nights I play and just play longer tournaments with better structures. My bankroll would probably not increase that much more on a weekly basis, but if I can finish in the top 10 percent 39 percent of the time, that means I'm going to score big at some point. Many of those tournaments pay thousands for first place.

Thoughts?