Saturday, March 14, 2009

Stupid call? Likely. Good result? Sure.

Still not sure whether I played this hand well, but I think I miscalculated the math at the time and counted all the chips villain shoved in and not just the chips I could win since he had me covered. Regardless, I don't generally shove all my chips in with a hand like this:

Stacks:
BB with 1570
UTG with 4650
UTG+1 with 1300
MP1 with 1955
MP2 with 2525
MP3 with 3345
CO with 1010
BTN with 2625
SB with 2235

Poker Forum


Blinds:
Site: Full Tilt Poker
Dealt to BB: J♣ K♥
Sklansky group 5
Preflop:
2 players fold.
MP1 calls [100]
Hero checks
5 players folded.
Total folds this street: 7
Potsize: 250
Flop:
3♦ 9♠ 10♣
Hero bets [200]
5 players fold.
MP1 raises to 1,855, and is all in

So there's in essence about 1,850 in the pot (250 preflop, plus my 200 and his 200, plus the 1,200 I have left), so I I'm getting 3-to-2 odds. Am I better than 40 percent to win?

If he has one pair, which I decided he did, then I am close. (If he had two pair or a set, I don't think he shoves.) That likely gives me wins with a jack, a king or a queen for a straight. Odds calculators say I'm about 38.5 percent to win, which makes this a borderline call at best.

But I think I counted the extra 600 that he had pushed in when I did my calculations, which led me to call. Still, even if I had a shot at those extra chips, this was for my tournament life. Should have folded.

In the end, I hit a jack on the turn and a king on the river for two pair and a double up. Didn't matter. Slump continued with another middle-of-the-pack finish.

Current bankroll: $1,261

OPR ranking: 98.41

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